Trading plan for June 19, 2013

ESU3 Daily Chart

ES broke through the short-term resistance line (downtrend channel) and managed to close above it. At the close, ES gained 11.50points.

Now in all time frames (short-term, intermediate and long term) the indicators are pointing bullish. The 1596.50 level could the low of the next higher price move. Today is the FOMC announcement. As long as ES doesn't close under 1618 level, the price will rally.

Date Added: 2013-06-18 23:12:38
Downloads: 23

Trading plan for June 18, 2013

ESU3 Daily Chart

ES traded gap up strong at open, held up well until the FT/CNBC report that the Fed may taper. Today price will continue to trade according to the news, or better, the rumors. ES is vulnerable to news. Any rumor about taper will lead to a price sell-off, and rumors about no taper will lead to a price rally. 1628.50-1629.50 remains key zone, and price could chop around this key zone for today.

The intermediate and long term remain bullish. As long as ES doesn't break down through 1596 level, the uptrend remains intact. The short-term resistance line around 1648.50 needs to be overcome by bulls to lead the price higher.

Date Added: 2013-06-17 22:07:02
Downloads: 17

Trading plan for June 17, 2013

Weekly Outlook - S&P500 Cash Index (SPX)

The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 1626.73 on Friday, down 16.65 points for a 1.01% net weekly loss.

The SPX had a wild ride last week, running up for the high on the first day of week. But it failed to hold the gain; at the end, it surrendered 16 points.

This week the concerns over the Federal Reserve tapering off monetary easing measures will continue to weigh on investor sentiment until Wednesday's FOMC report.

The Wall Street Journal's Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath is widely perceived to be the mouthpiece for the Fed. He suggests the recent mixed messages from the Fed are causing some concern, which in turn is prompting investors to take more defensive investment decisions — taking a little money off the table while the market still is high.

SPX Weekly Chart

Technical analysis

For the short-term the strength for the upside has been diminished since $SPX made new highs around 1687.18 on May 22. The price has been in a short-term correction process since then. But price hasn't breached its major short term support zone at 1580-1575 yet, which still maintains a bullish condition for the longer term.

So far $SPX still trades above the 1600 psychological support level. At the same time, $VIX moved 50% above last month's low and was unable to move above the 18 level last week, which possibly hints at higher volatility ahead. We also have a Fed meeting scheduled for this week and quadruple witching on Friday. Stay tuned.

For the long term, as long as $SPX doesn't break down long-term uptrend channel (green channel) the bulls will continue taking control.

Monthly resistance 1685 and support 1575; Weekly resistance 1675 and support 1575

Daily Outlook - S&P500 mini futures (ES)

Daily Chart ESU3

ES attempted to fill the rollover gap at 1636.50 and failed.

The failure triggered bearish sentiment Friday and the selling pressure was increasing after 10am. At the end, ES closed under the lower trading range and lost 13.25 points on the day.

Based on the daily chart, ES remains inside the short-term downtrend line. The short-term downtrend resistance line and intermediate-term uptrend support line (blue) form a triangle pattern. ES could stay inside this triangle pattern until Wednesday.

Long term uptrend remains bullish. But the short-term is bearish and intermediate-term is neutral but favors the selling side. As long as the price hasn't moved outside the short-term downtrend channel it still has a chance to drop back down to the intermediate-term uptrend line in the1600 area for testing.

Date Added: 2013-06-17 08:11:09
Downloads: 39